QUOTE(Artie See @ Jan 27 2008, 05:57 PM)
Wait until gasoline and heating oil pass $5 a gallon - and keep climbing.
And they will, sooner rather than later, most likely combined with a recession.
THEN let's talk about how attractive all those McMansions really are.
I will agree with the scenario of astronomical commuting costs creating havock in the suburbs, but neither the housing location with regards to public transportation, nor the business destinations in relationship to public transportation accessibility have been taken into account for the last few decades. The locationof housing and businesses have ben developed in locations that presume highway transportation is the sole access. Everything is so spread-out that there is no way to route public tranpostation to accomodate. The public transportationsystem to adequately serve the destinations wold be more expensive per houshbold than the high gas prices would dictate.
Also: in previous decades, one would get a job, and locate to the immediate area with the expectation that he (she) would be working there for many years, maybe until retirement, justifying the housing near the job. Factory owners built cheap housing nearby to assure a low-income worker could locate nearby. No more. The average job tenancy is now less than 5 years. So the proximity to the job is not the greatest criteria for housing location. A new job search forces the seeker to decide on: relocating; searching only for work nearby; or extending the job seach to a wider commuting radius.
The main purpose of high-density housing SHOULD be to offer a less-expensive option for lower income residents. The preserving of open space is a collateral benefit. But I think the location to be able for residents commute via public transportation is no longer possible.